Prof's Rake and Take, and LS Freq reports for 2020

[Prof_Factor]

Longshot (20-1+) frequency by track for 2020

    LS (races) r/LS
--------------------
WRD 21 (196)   9.33 
OP  33 (401)  12.15 
TP  27 (395)  14.63 
TAM 48 (717)  14.94 
KD   4 (61)   15.25 
ALB 10 (153)  15.30 
MTH 29 (476)  16.41 
DED 31 (536)  17.29 
CLN  3 (53)   17.66 
EVD 23 (421)  18.30 
HAW 17 (315)  18.52 
EMD 18 (361)  20.06 
HOU 16 (321)  20.06 
ZIA  8 (164)  20.50 
WO  44 (905)  20.57 
GP  88 (1817) 20.65 
CT  47 (1095) 23.30 
IND 34 (805)  23.68 
LAD 18 (446)  24.77 
SA  21 (547)  26.05 
CD  25 (652)  26.08 
FP   7 (183)  26.14 
LRL 40 (1052) 26.30 
FG  26 (686)  26.38 
CBY 16 (433)  27.06 
LS  12 (331)  27.58 
FMT  6 (167)  27.83 
PRX 39 (1100) 28.20 
KEE  8 (228)  28.50 
MVR 22 (632)  28.73 
AQU 20 (575)  28.75 
FON 12 (346)  28.83 
RUI  5 (149)  29.80 
DEL 18 (539)  29.94 
PEN 28 (839)  29.96 
AP   8 (244)  30.50 
LRC  5 (155)  31.00 
GPW 11 (344)  31.27 
TUP 11 (357)  32.45 
HST  6 (198)  33.00 
SUN  8 (267)  33.37 
RP  18 (601)  33.39 
MNR 29 (983)  33.90 
ARP  6 (208)  34.67 
BEL 14 (505)  36.07 
SAR 11 (399)  36.27 
ELP  6 (223)  37.17 
DMR 11 (412)  37.45 
BTP 15 (588)  39.20 
PID 10 (409)  40.90 
FL   9 (377)  41.89 
CTM  8 (339)  42.37 
FE   7 (300)  42.86 
GG  24 (1054) 43.92 
TDN 13 (682)  52.46 
PLN  2 (135)  67.50 
PRM  6 (472)  78.67

 

[Prof_Factor]

Given the average field size and takeout%, we can project what should be the average winning odds.
AveWinOdds = (FieldSize*(1-Takeout))-1
So, 10-horse fields with no takeout should average 9.0 win odds, and 10-horse fields with 20% take should average 7.0 win odds.
Using the same formula, we can extrapolate the total rake (or projected takeout) using actual win odds and fieldsizes and determine the "Rake and Take" difference.
Takeout = 1-((AveWinOdds+1)/FieldSize)
or for our purposes,
TotalRake = 1-((AveWinOdds+1)/FieldSize)

Presuming all the math is right, the chart below shows Total Rake, Track Takeout, and difference.

Inflated Rake is result of winning underlays (or returns below expected).

THIS CHART IS COMPILED FROM THE YEAR 2020. SAMPLE SIZES BELOW 200 RACES SHOULD BE VIEWED DISCRIMINATELY.

Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
ALBUQUERQUE	153	9.4	6.01	$0.75	$0.25	$0.19	$0.06
ARLINGTON(dirt)	128	7.7	5.58	$0.87	$0.13	$0.17	$-0.04
ARLINGTON(turf)	116	7.9	5.12	$0.77	$0.23	$0.17	$0.06
ARAPAHOE PARK	208	8.1	5.18	$0.76	$0.24	$0.19	$0.05
AQUEDUCT(dirt)	500	7.5	4.84	$0.77	$0.23	$0.16	$0.07
AQUEDUCT(turf)	75	10	5.40	$0.64	$0.36	$0.16	$0.20
BELMONT(dirt)	272	7.6	4.47	$0.72	$0.28	$0.16	$0.12
BELMONT(turf)	124	9.3	6.12	$0.77	$0.23	$0.16	$0.07
BELMONT(inner turf)	109	8.7	5.48	$0.74	$0.26	$0.16	$0.10
BELTERRA(dirt)	522	7.1	3.57	$0.65	$0.35	$0.18	$0.17
BELTERRA(turf)	66	9.2	6.22	$0.79	$0.21	$0.18	$0.03
CANTERBURY(dirt)	298	7.1	4.34	$0.75	$0.25	$0.17	$0.08
CANTERBURY(turf)	135	7.6	5.17	$0.81	$0.19	$0.17	$0.02
CENTURY MILE	339	7.5	4.83	$0.78	$0.22	$0.15	$0.07
CHURCHILL(dirt)	547	8.3	5.01	$0.73	$0.27	$0.17	$0.10
CHURCHILL(turf)	105	9.9	6.67	$0.78	$0.22	$0.17	$0.05
CHARLESTOWN	1095	7.6	4.67	$0.75	$0.25	$0.17	$0.08
DELTA DOWNS	536	8.7	5.90	$0.80	$0.20	$0.17	$0.03
DELAWARE(dirt)	456	7.1	4.41	$0.76	$0.24	$0.17	$0.07
DELAWARE(turf)	83	10.1	5.63	$0.66	$0.34	$0.17	$0.17
DEL MAR(dirt)	223	7.7	4.94	$0.77	$0.23	$0.15	$0.08
Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
DEL MAR(turf)	189	8.9	6.16	$0.81	$0.19	$0.15	$0.04
ELLIS(dirt)	125	6.9	4.38	$0.78	$0.22	$0.17	$0.05
ELLIS(turf)	98	8.6	5.73	$0.78	$0.22	$0.17	$0.05
EMERALD DOWNS	361	7.4	5.37	$0.86	$0.14	$0.16	$-0.02
EVANGELINE(dirt)	323	8.2	5.43	$0.78	$0.22	$0.17	$0.05
EVANGELINE(turf)	98	8.0	6.02	$0.87	$0.13	$0.17	$-0.04
FORT ERIE(dirt)	211	6.1	3.71	$0.77	$0.23	$0.17	$0.06
FORT ERIE(turf)	89	7.3	5.10	$0.84	$0.16	$0.17	$-0.01
FAIRGROUNDS(dirt)	483	7.5	4.87	$0.78	$0.22	$0.17	$0.05
FAIRGROUNDS(turf)	203	9.1	5.63	$0.73	$0.27	$0.17	$0.10
FINGER LAKES	377	8.2	4.70	$0.70	$0.30	$0.18	$0.12
FAIR MEADOWS	167	7.1	3.69	$0.66	$0.34	$0.18	$0.16
FONNER	346	8.0	4.78	$0.72	$0.28	$0.18	$0.10
FAIRMOUNT	183	7.9	4.40	$0.68	$0.32	$0.17	$0.15
GOLDEN GATE(dirt)	863	6.8	4.12	$0.75	$0.25	$0.15	$0.10
GOLDEN GATE(turf)	191	7.3	4.94	$0.81	$0.19	$0.15	$0.04
GULFSTREAM(dirt)	1060	7.6	5.16	$0.81	$0.19	$0.17	$0.02
GULFSTREAM(turf)	757	9.4	5.74	$0.72	$0.28	$0.17	$0.11
GULFSTREAM WEST(dirt)	270	7.7	4.97	$0.78	$0.22	$0.17	$0.05
GULFSTREAM WEST(turf)	74	9.8	7.89	$0.90	$0.10	$0.17	$-0.07
HAWTHORNE(dirt)	266	8.8	5.09	$0.69	$0.31	$0.17	$0.14
Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
HASTINGS	198	7.1	4.67	$0.80	$0.20	$0.15	$0.05
INDIANA(dirt)	621	7.6	4.60	$0.74	$0.26	$0.18	$0.08
INDIANA(turf)	184	9.1	5.62	$0.73	$0.27	$0.18	$0.09
KEENELAND(dirt)	168	8.1	4.80	$0.72	$0.28	$0.16	$0.12
KEENELAND(turf)	60	10.3	8.29	$0.90	$0.10	$0.16	$-0.06
KENTUCKY DOWNS	61	10.0	7.40	$0.84	$0.26	$0.16	$0.10
LOUISIANA(dirt)	303	7.7	4.42	$0.70	$0.30	$0.17	$0.13
LOUISIANA(turf)	143	8.5	6.22	$0.85	$0.15	$0.17	-$0.02
LOS ALAMITOS	155	8.1	5.67	$0.82	$0.18	$0.15	$0.03
LAUREL(dirt)	950	7.2	4.22	$0.72	$0.28	$0.18	$0.10
LAUREL(turf)	102	10.0	6.36	$0.74	$0.26	$0.18	$0.14
LONE STAR(dirt)	242	8.9	5.44	$0.72	$0.28	$0.18	$0.10
LONE STAR(turf)	89	9.4	4.13	$0.55	$0.45	$0.18	$0.27
MOUNTAINEER(dirt)	851	7.4	4.60	$0.75	$0.25	$0.17	$0.08
MOUNTAINEER(turf)	132	8.4	3.94	$0.59	$0.41	$0.17	$0.24
MONMOUTH(dirt)	335	7.2	4.88	$0.82	$0.18	$0.17	$0.01
MONMOUTH(turf)	141	9.1	8.62	$1.05	$-0.05	$0.17	$-0.12
MAHONING VALLEY	632	8.1	5.02	$0.74	$0.26	$0.18	$0.08
OAKLAWN PARK	401	9.4	5.70	$0.72	$0.28	$0.17	$0.11
Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
PENN NATIONAL(dirt)	772	7.2	4.39	$0.75	$0.25	$0.17	$0.08
PENN NATIONAL(turf)	67	8.6	5.38	$0.74	$0.26	$0.17	$0.09
PRESQUE ISLE	409	8.3	4.61	$0.68	$0.32	$0.17	$0.15
PIMLICO(dirt)	44	7.0	4.45	$0.78	$0.22	$0.18	$0.04
PLEASANTON	135	6.4	3.52	$0.71	$0.29	$0.17	$0.12
PRAIRIE MEADOWS	472	6.8	3.88	$0.72	$0.28	$0.17	$0.11
PARX(dirt)	1046	8.2	4.95	$0.73	$0.27	$0.17	$0.10
PARX(turf)	54	8.8	6.10	$0.81	$0.19	$0.17	$0.02
REMINGTON(dirt)	490	8.5	5.08	$0.71	$0.29	$0.18	$0.11
REMINGTON(turf)	111	9.1	5.05	$0.67	$0.33	$0.18	$0.15
RUIDOSO	149	8.2	4.90	$0.72	$0.28	$0.19	$0.09
SAM HOUSTON(dirt)	239	8.2	4.14	$0.62	$0.38	$0.18	$0.20
SAM HOUSTON(turf)	82	9.5	7.24	$0.87	$0.13	$0.18	$-0.05
SANTA ANITA(dirt)	304	6.9	4.43	$0.79	$0.21	$0.15	$0.06
SANTA ANITA(turf)	243	8.1	4.99	$0.74	$0.26	$0.15	$0.11
SARATOGA(dirt)	225	7.0	4.48	$0.79	$0.21	$0.16	$0.05
SARATOGA(turf)	94	8.2	6.61	$0.92	$0.08	$0.16	$-0.08
SARATOGA(inner turf)	80	7.8	5.11	$0.79	$0.21	$0.16	$0.05
Track	Sample Size	Average Fieldsize	Average WinOdds	Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize)	Total Rake	Track Takeout	Rake minus Takeout
SUNLAND PARK	267	7.9	4.86	$0.74	$0.26	$0.19	$0.07
TAMPA BAY(dirt)	458	7.8	4.86	$0.75	$0.25	$0.17	$0.08
TAMPA BAY(turf)	259	9.1	5.78	$0.75	$0.25	$0.17	$0.08
THISTLEDOWNS	682	7.2	4.05	$0.70	$0.30	$0.18	$0.12
TURFWAY	395	9.9	6.31	$0.74	$0.26	$0.17	$0.09
TURF PARADISE(dirt)	293	7.5	4.79	$0.77	$0.23	$0.21	$0.02
TURF PARADISE(turf)	64	7.9	4.38	$0.68	$0.32	$0.21	$0.11
WOODBINE(dirt)	605	8.8	5.71	$0.76	$0.24	$0.15	$0.09
WOODBINE(turf)	172	9.3	6.16	$0.77	$0.23	$0.15	$0.08
WOODBINE(inner turf)	128	8.7	5.42	$0.74	$0.26	$0.15	$0.11
WILL ROGERS DOWNS	196	8.7	6.28	$0.84	$0.16	$0.18	$-0.02
WYOMING DOWNS	51	8.1	5.05	$0.75	$0.25	$0.17	$0.08
ZIA PARK	164	9.3	5.34	$0.68	$0.32	$0.19	$0.13

 

[Prof_Factor]

Monmouth Park numbers significantly better (more playable) since the abolishment of Navarro and company.


2019/2018/2017 reports can be found on this forum for comparison.

 

[Jack1999]

OK Prof thx for the reports. GL if playing today.

 

[yesyes]

nice job here prof
monmouth interesting